The Excerpt podcast: Caucus Day in Iowa

On today's episode of The Excerpt podcast: It's Caucus Day in Iowa. Des Moines Register Chief Politics Reporter Brianne Pfannenstiel looks at the latest polling. Freezing weather rolls across much of the country. USA TODAY White House Correspondent Joey Garrison looks at President Joe Biden's polling struggles among Hispanic voters. Lawmakers prepare a temporary deal to keep the government open. It's been more than 100 days of the Israel-Hamas War. On this MLK Day, we remember Dr. King with a special episode.

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Hit play on the player above to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript below.This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.  

Taylor Wilson:

Good morning, I'm Taylor Wilson and today is Monday, January 15th, 2024. This is The Excerpt. Today it's Republican Caucus Day in Iowa. Plus we look at Biden's polling struggles among Hispanic voters. And it's been over 100 days of the Israel Hamas War. It's Republican Caucus Day in Iowa, kicking presidential election season into high gear and a new Des Moines Register NBC News, MediaCom poll out this weekend showed former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley gaining ground on front-runner former president Donald Trump. The Iowa poll out on Saturday showed 48% of likely Republican caucus goers picked Trump as their first choice for President. Haley came in second at 20%. I spoke with Des Moines Register's chief politics reporter, Brianne Pfannenstiel for more of the poll's findings. Brianne, thanks for hopping on The Excerpt today.

Brianne Pfannenstiel :

Thanks so much for having me.

Taylor Wilson:

So Nikki Haley has overtaken Ron DeSantis in polling out Saturday. Brianne, what do the latest numbers say here?

Brianne Pfannenstiel :

This is the last big poll that we do before the Iowa caucuses, and it's one that the political world really looks to kind of set expectations, and they show that Donald Trump is still far and away the front-runner. He leads with 48% of Republicans, likely caucus goers. Nikki Haley though jumped into second place, and that's big news for her. She'd been sitting in third before, but she leapfrogged Ron DeSantis into second place. And so as we've been watching this, the fight for second has been a big deal. Ron DeSantis now in third place at 16% and Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%.

Taylor Wilson:

That's got to be encouraging for the Haley camp. But why might some of the other polling data for Haley be troubling for them?

Brianne Pfannenstiel :

We work with a pollster, J. Ann Selzer who is considered the gold standard in terms of polling for the Iowa caucuses. And what I love about working with her is she really looks at some of the underlying data to tell the bigger story about why things are happening and what other data points might kind of inform what we end up seeing on caucus night. And so one of the questions that we asked is basically for respondents to tell us how excited are you to caucus for your candidate? And so overall, 32% of likely GOP caucus goers say that they're extremely enthusiastic. But then we can break it down by candidates.

So Donald Trump supporters, 49% say that they're extremely enthusiastic. So that's well above that benchmark there. For DeSantis, it's 23%. For Nikki Haley, it's just 9%. That's kind of a real flashing warning sign for her in a contest that requires people to get out of their house on a very cold January night to show up at a specific time and location and actually commit some real time. This is a higher bar for participation than your normal primary election. So we really look to these enthusiasm numbers to say who's actually going to show up and who's going to put in the work to support their candidate.

Taylor Wilson:

And Brianne, we know Donald Trump is the National GOP front-runner. What does this polling say about his support in Iowa ahead of caucus night?

Brianne Pfannenstiel :

So Donald Trump continues to have a very strong showing in this poll. That's been consistent for him over the many months we've been following this campaign. If anything, he's gotten stronger over time. What we see is that he leads with every single demographic that this poll tests. So whether it's age or race or income, Donald Trump leads with those.

Taylor Wilson:

We've been talking a lot here on the show about just how likely voters might be to change their minds, if you've looked at polling numbers in New Hampshire and Iowa and had these conversations, how many voters were likely to change their minds as of this Saturday polling?

Brianne Pfannenstiel :

So this comes as people are really starting to solidify their picks. Overall, 68% say that their minds are fully made up. 25% say they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate, and 7% say they don't even have a first choice candidate at this point. So the Iowa caucuses are interesting because people are really making up their minds all the way up until the last minute. They're designed for some conversations to be had between friends and neighbors at these caucus locations. When you show up, each of the campaigns will have someone basically make a closing pitch. They're going to try to persuade people in the room. And so what this poll shows is that a majority have their minds made up, but there's still a significant group there who are making a decision between now and 7:00 PM Monday.

Taylor Wilson:

And Brianne, I'd like to get just some historical context here. How has polling in Iowa compared to the actual results that we've seen in the past?

Brianne Pfannenstiel :

So what this poll does is it looks at this moment, how are Republican caucus goers feeling about the crop of candidates? And I think it's important to remember that there is still time for them to change their minds. We just talked about all the people whose minds aren't made up. So what happens in this poll can shift on caucus night, and we of course see that, but the Iowa poll that we've been conducting here at the Des Moines Register is considered the gold standard in terms of being accurate, in terms of picking up those predictions. So we've been pulling every Iowa caucus since 1984. Of the 14 presidential nominating contests that have taken place at those caucuses, the leading candidate in the latest Iowa poll in the month before caucus night has gone on to win with a couple of exceptions.

Taylor Wilson:

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register, part of the USA TODAY Network. Brianne, I so appreciate your time and insight on this busy week. Thanks so much.

Brianne Pfannenstiel :

Thank you.

Taylor Wilson:

We have reporters from across the USA TODAY Network covering the caucus in Iowa. You can follow along with desmoinesregister.com and usatoday.com.

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Taylor Wilson:

Another factor in Iowa might be the weather. A deep freeze settled in for many Americans over the weekend, even as far south as Florida. And new temperature records were set in Iowa yesterday, including -18 degrees at Des Moines International Airport. The lowest temperature recorded for that date in Des Moines since 1888.

Meanwhile, snow rolling across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas was forecast to expand into Arkansas, Missouri, and the Tennessee Valley today. Some areas could see more than a foot of snow. According to AccuWeather.

And in Buffalo, usually used to snow, conditions were so severe an NFL playoff game between the Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers was postponed with up to three feet of snow expected in some areas.

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Taylor Wilson:

While Republicans caucus tonight in Iowa, Democrats in the state have changed the way they caucus switching to an entirely mail-in system. Iowa Democrats can fill out a card and return it to the state party until March 5th. President Joe Biden is expected to win that. But there are new concerns about his support among key constituencies including Hispanic voters. I spoke with USA TODAY White House correspondent Joey Garrison for more. Joey, thanks for making the time.

Joey Garrison:

Hey, thanks for having me, Taylor.

Taylor Wilson:

So Joey, what does polling tell us right now about Biden's support among Hispanic voters and just how crucial was this voting block for him in 2020?

Joey Garrison:

Well, in 2020 we saw President Biden win Hispanic voters by about a 2 to 1 margin, 65% to 32%. So it's obviously one of the key pieces of the Democratic base, but what we're seeing in several polls so far, including one from USA Today in Suffolk University is Biden performing way under that. The Suffolk University USA Today poll actually had Trump ahead 39 to 34. That's kind of somewhat of an outlier. There's others that have Biden still winning among Hispanic voters, but by a smaller margin. But definitely across the board, sort of an underperforming among Latino voters.

Taylor Wilson:

Joey, what issues is Biden really struggling to connect with Hispanic voters on?

Joey Garrison:

Well, Hispanic voters really aren't that much different than voters as a whole on the broader electorate. They're concerned most of all by far the economy. We've talked many times here, President Biden's message on the economy, despite a host of positive metrics, still isn't reflecting when we poll people on how they're feeling about it, namely with inflation and the cost of living still not getting to what it was a couple of years ago. That's sort of the hesitancy. Now, you talk to a lot of younger Latino voters and they're concerned like many young voters about President Biden's unwavering support for Israel's war in Gaza. So there's some resistance there among some first time voters.

Taylor Wilson:

And Joey, how worried is the Biden campaign about this and what's their strategy to close the gap?

Joey Garrison:

Well, the Biden campaign says they're not taking Hispanic voters for granted, nor are they taking Black voters for granted. That's another key part of the Democratic constituency in which Biden is right now, polling below levels. When it comes to Latino voters, they say, "Look, we are reaching out right now to those voters in battleground states earlier than we ever have. And with more money going on television, radio, mailed advertisements earlier than we ever have."

So there's this idea, I think a lot of past Democratic campaigns, maybe you just go to your base at the end and say, "Hey, get out the vote efforts. Remember us, vote for our guy." They say they're still persuading these voters early on that President Biden's agenda is one that matches their interests and they also point to the campaign that his polls that include a much larger sample size of Hispanic voters. These were taken by various Latino organizations that show Biden is doing better than maybe some of the polls like ours and the New York Times and others that are doing a smaller sample size of Latino voters. So they are confident, I think that they will get there, but they say they aren't taking anything for granted.

Taylor Wilson:

Joey Garrison covers the White House for USA TODAY. Thank you, Joey.

Joey Garrison:

Hey, thanks so much.

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Taylor Wilson:

Lawmakers are preparing a temporary deal to keep the government's doors open until March as the nation faces a possible temporary shutdown this week. Funding for a number of programs from veterans affairs to transportation and housing will expire on January 19th. The rest of the government's funding expires February 2nd. The temporary measure will run through March 1st for some federal agencies expected to run out of approved funds Friday and will apply for others through March 8th. The anticipated agreement comes as Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has faced major pressure from House Republicans right flank after he announced a spending deal alongside Democratic Senate majority Leader Chuck Schumer last week. The two called for a spending package in line with the debt ceiling deal struck between former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden.

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Yesterday marked 100 days since Israel and Hamas have been at war, and it's the longest and bloodiest conflict between the enemies. Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th, killing at least 1,200 people and taking another 240 hostage. Since then, Israel has killed nearly 24,000 Palestinians in Gaza. The White House said yesterday that it's the right time for Israel to scale back its offensive in Gaza, but Israeli leaders continue to vow to press ahead. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a speech Saturday, "No one will stop us. Not The Hague, not the axis of evil and not anyone else." He made reference to Iran and its allied militias. Netanyahu spoke after the International Court of Justice at The Hague held hearings on South Africa's allegations that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians. Something Israel denied.

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Today is Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The legendary civil rights leader fought against racial inequality in the United States, helping to spark a national movement, and he won the Nobel Peace Prize. King was assassinated in 1968, and it wasn't until 1986 that Martin Luther King Jr. Day became federally recognized. MLK Day has been designated as a national day of service with Americans encouraged to volunteer to improve their communities according to the Smithsonian National Museum of African-American History and Culture. For more on the legacy of Dr. King, you can check out our episode hosted by my colleague, Dana Taylor. We have a link in today's show notes.

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Thanks for listening to The Excerpt. You can get the podcast wherever you get your audio, and if you use a smart speaker, just ask for The Excerpt. I'm Taylor back tomorrow with more of The Excerpt from USA TODAY.